SaltyBot - A bot for SaltyBet.com

Current state - 3/11/23: Everything works!

Release: SaltyBot 1.0! ✔️

Currently Working On:

• Awesome stuff to help betting! (SaltyBot 2.0)
• Possible refactoring

❌ Bug (minor): Outliers for matchTime every last-match of a game mode (Tourney or MM)

What This Bot Does:

• Records its own database
• Pulls records from the database
• Assigns its own ratings to players (via Microsoft TrueSkill)
• Gathers a suggested winner (via probability of a win, difference in skill variance, and streaks)
• Bets automatically (via the Kelly Criterion)

Special Thanks:
DukeOfEarl for teaching me everything I know about programming, and some coding help with this program.

Instructions for use

Step 0: Login and Python Prerequisites

Login Prerequisites:

This program requires a Twitch account to pull certain data from current matches.
Create a file called just ".env" in the working-directory of SaltyBot (without quotes). In this .env file, include your personal strings for the following variables (INCLUDE QUOTES):

email = "your_saltyBet.com_email_here"
password = "your_saltyBet.com_password_here"
token = "your_Twitch_oauth_token_here" (Get one here: https://twitchapps.com/tmi/)
user = "your_Twitch_username_here"

Python Prerequisites:

To install: pip install -r requirements.txt

Alive Progress
Beautiful Soup
Dot Env
TrueSkill
Requests
Urllib3
Tabulate
Pandas

Step 1: GOGOGOGOGOGOGO

Run "SaltyStateMachine.py" to run the program until:

• The heat-death of the universe
• Your power supply/internet connection fails
• The SaltyBet JSON/Twitch servers shut down

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Details on betting and rankings

How are rankings assigned, and how do I get the probability of a winner?

Using the Xbox Live Matchmaking system (MS TrueSkill), default ratings are assigned to each new player the database hasn't found. If they've been found, it uses their latest record/ratings, and "updates" them based off of the result of their upcoming match.

Since TrueSkill uses the Bayesian inference algorithm, I use the cumulative distribution function of this normalized Gaussian distribution to give me a probability of player 1 winning the current match.

• The predicted winner is the fighter with the higher probability of winning.

• If the probability of winning is 50%, this bot then looks at difference in rating variation.
  The predicted winner is the fighter with the lower rating variation.

• Lastly, if the variations are both the same, this bot looks at the fighters' streaks.
  The predicted winner is the fighter with the higher streak.

• If the probabilities are the same, or their variances are the same, or their streaks are the same or are None:
  The predicted winner is None.

How does betting work in Matchmaking?

In MM, if your balance is < 10,000, this bot will wager the entire balance. It takes money to make money, heh. 🙂

If your balance is > 10,000 in MM:

If there is a Predicted Winner:

This bot bets an amount based off of the Kelly Criterion

• Typical wager amounts average 2.5% of your balance. In this comparison, bets are NEVER LARGER than 5% of your entire balance.

If there isn't a Predicted Winner:

• This bot wagers $1 on a randomly selected fighter.

How does betting work in Tournaments?

In Tournaments, this bot wagers your entire tournament-balance up to $20,000 every round. Once $20,000 is hit, the betting-system will limit wagers based on the Kelly Criterion like in MM (instead of entire balance, to ensure keeping of at least roughly $20,000).

How does betting or match-recording work in Exhibitions?

It doesn't, lol.

Exhibitions are so fucking wacky, that for right now, I'm just ignoring them completely.
No bets, no database recording, no nothing. I haven't implemented it, and don't know if I will.

What happens when Tier or True Streaks don't come back from Twitch?

If Tier or True Streaks aren't pulled from Twitch, it will not record that match.

Important note - PATIENCE IS A VIRTUE!

Because of the way this bot assigns ratings and probabilities of winning, ratings gain confidence with time. You'll start finding success better than 50% starting ~4000 entries, and you'll find the most success of this bot once your database reaches ~30,000+ entries (roughly 75 days of logging).
I know...I know...but k'mon, you're building your own database of ongoing fights! It'll take a bit!

If you have over $10k, realistically, it'll probably wager $1 on most bets up to ~1500 entries in the DB, you'll probably come out a little <50% on bets from about 1500-3000 entries (due to it betting on a ranked fighter when it finds them, against a "new" fighter with an assigned default ranking, losing the bet), then it'll only get better from there.

I believe 95% confidence ratings start appearing after roughly 10-12 matches recorded per-figher.
(~30,000 total matches. Roughly 2 months of recording matches.)
This bot will do much better than a random choice up until then, but that's when it should almost never bet incorrectly.
Patience!