Average Person less risk than eating out once #1432
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I hear you, and I've had similar thoughts about the way the tool models the "went to a bar" person risk. A growing portion of these behaviors' risks are "priced in" to the local prevalence, so as they get more typical they should also be closer to the mean. By how much, is the less clear question. That said, I'd suggest not worrying too much about the comparison between the "person risk" score to the "activity risk" of the scenario calculation, it's a bit apples and oranges. Person risk models "has covid", which is about snapshotting the person or population at a moment in time. That's mainly by the estimate of local prevalence, unless you know a lot about the specific person, which for strangers at a restaurant you definitely don't. Activity risk models "you GET covid" which has a significant time factor (how long are you unmasked at the restaurant) and multiplicative factor (how many diners are you swapping air with). For the specific question of indoor dining comparison, a few points: #0, in your area's case I think 700 and 1100 are pretty close, well within error for a scenario calculation. So you might think of these two numbers as "basically the same" and not worry too much about the within-error difference. #1, you might be wrong about the prevalence of the dining behavior in your area --- a lot of people with kids or low income don't eat out much, for example. So your behavior might be more outgoing vs the average than you think. Then again, restaurants may not be driving infections in your area as much as schools or local industry... who knows what's inside that average. #2, an individual's "true" person risk spikes for the couple days after the restaurant activity, but then declines as the evidence accumulates that they didn't get covid from it. The average of that curve will be some number below the peak. Hope these thoughts help! |
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I understand how the risks are calculated. From a common stance standpoint, I do not think it makes since that eating out once (1,100 microcovid) is a higher risk than the average person in my area (700 microcovid). Nearly everyone in the area has stopped taking precautions, and I expect that the average person eats out or attends a similar gathering at least once a week.
Would love to hear what everyone else thinks of this. It seems to have become an issue since the omicron update.
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