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machine_learning (1).py
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machine_learning (1).py
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#import packages
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
#to plot within notebook
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from IPython import get_ipython
get_ipython().run_line_magic('matplotlib', 'inline')
#setting figure size
from matplotlib.pylab import rcParams
rcParams['figure.figsize'] = 20,10
#for normalizing data
from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler
scaler = MinMaxScaler(feature_range=(0, 1))
#read the file
df = pd.read_csv('')
#print the head
df.head()
#setting index as date
from pandas.plotting import register_matplotlib_converters
register_matplotlib_converters()
df['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(df.Date,format='%Y-%m-%d')
df.index = df['Date']
#plot
plt.figure(figsize=(16,8))
plt.plot(df['Close'], label='Close Price history')
#creating dataframe with date and the target variable
data = df.sort_index(ascending=True, axis=0)
new_data = pd.DataFrame(index=range(0,len(df)),columns=['Date', 'Close'])
for i in range(0,len(data)):
new_data['Date'][i] = data['Date'][i]
new_data['Close'][i] = data['Close'][i]
#create features
from fastai.structured import add_datepart
add_datepart(new_data, 'Date')
new_data.drop('Elapsed', axis=1, inplace=True) #elapsed will be the time stamp
new_data['mon_fri'] = 0
for i in range(0,len(new_data)):
if (new_data['Dayofweek'][i] == 0 or new_data['Dayofweek'][i] == 4):
new_data['mon_fri'][i] = 1
else:
new_data['mon_fri'][i] = 0
#splitting into train and validation
train = new_data[:987]
valid = new_data[987:]
new_data.shape, train.shape, valid.shape
((1235, 2), (987, 2), (248, 2))
train['Date'].min(), train['Date'].max(), valid['Date'].min(), valid['Date'].max()
x_train = train.drop('Close', axis=1)
y_train = train['Close']
x_valid = valid.drop('Close', axis=1)
y_valid = valid['Close']
#implement linear regression
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression
model = LinearRegression()
model.fit(x_train,y_train)
'''
(Timestamp('2013-10-08 00:00:00'),
Timestamp('2017-10-06 00:00:00'),
Timestamp('2017-10-09 00:00:00'),
Timestamp('2018-10-08 00:00:00'))
'''
#make predictions
preds = []
for i in range(0,248):
a = train['Close'][len(train)-248+i:].sum() + sum(preds)
b = a/248
preds.append(b)
#calculate rmse
rms=np.sqrt(np.mean(np.power((np.array(valid['Close'])-preds),2)))
rms
#plot
valid['Predictions'] = 0
valid['Predictions'] = preds
plt.plot(train['Close'])
plt.plot(valid[['Close', 'Predictions']])
#make predictions and find the rmse
preds = model.predict(x_valid)
rms=np.sqrt(np.mean(np.power((np.array(y_valid)-np.array(preds)),2)))
rms
#plot
valid['Predictions'] = 0
valid['Predictions'] = preds
valid.index = new_data[987:].index
train.index = new_data[:987].index
plt.plot(train['Close'])
plt.plot(valid[['Close', 'Predictions']])
#importing libraries
from sklearn import neighbors
from sklearn.model_selection import GridSearchCV
from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler
scaler = MinMaxScaler(feature_range=(0, 1))
#scaling data
x_train_scaled = scaler.fit_transform(x_train)
x_train = pd.DataFrame(x_train_scaled)
x_valid_scaled = scaler.fit_transform(x_valid)
x_valid = pd.DataFrame(x_valid_scaled)
#using gridsearch to find the best parameter
params = {'n_neighbors':[2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9]}
knn = neighbors.KNeighborsRegressor()
model = GridSearchCV(knn, params, cv=5)
#fit the model and make predictions
model.fit(x_train,y_train)
preds = model.predict(x_valid)
#rmse
rms=np.sqrt(np.mean(np.power((np.array(y_valid)-np.array(preds)),2)))
rms
#plot
valid['Predictions'] = 0
valid['Predictions'] = preds
plt.plot(valid[['Close', 'Predictions']])
plt.plot(train['Close'])